Alan Krigman – Playing It Smart: Are you paid by how often you win, or by how much?

In “Fooled by Randomness” (Random House), Nassim Nicholas Taleb tells of a high-level meeting at a Wall Street brokerage. The honchos asked whether he thought the stock market would go up or down the following week. “Up,” he replied. And, when pressed, predicted a strong probability it would do so about 70 percent. Someone in attendance pointed…